Investment bank UBS has raised its forecast for Macau’s 2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR), citing sustained strength in premium demand and continued expansion of high-end tourism offerings.
In a recent report, the investment bank said it now expects marketwide GGR to rise 6 percent year-on-year in 2026—1 percentage point higher than its previous projection—with premium-focused operators positioned to ‘capture GGR share sustainably.’
The upgraded outlook reflects what UBS described as improving reinvestment trends, broader diversification of Macau’s visitor base, and an increase in luxury accommodation and amenities. Upcoming property enhancements, including new suites at MGM Cotai and the Wynn Tower in early 2026, as well as Melco’s 150-suite Countdown Hotel set to open mid-year, are expected to reinforce demand within the premium segment.
UBS’ revised estimates indicate that Macau’s mass-market GGR will rise 6 percent in 2026, one point higher than previously projected and now 26 percent above 2019 levels. Premium mass continues to be the primary growth driver, supported by targeted marketing efforts and a ‘premiumized demand environment’ that favors operators with strong high-end positioning.
While mass revenue continues to surpass historical benchmarks, the VIP segment remains structurally smaller. VIP GGR for 2026 is expected to grow 6 percent year-on-year—largely unchanged from prior forecasts—but will remain 69 percent below 2019 levels. UBS noted that VIP volumes remain constrained even as premium mass absorbs more share previously held by junket-driven play.
Gradual path back toward pre-pandemic levels
UBS estimates that Macau’s total GGR will reach 89 percent of 2019 levels in 2026, rising to 93 percent in 2027. The bank also raised its 2025 GGR forecast slightly, now expecting 9 percent year-on-year growth and steady momentum across the mass segment.
For the first 11 months of 2025, cumulative GGR reached MOP226.52 billion ($28.32 billion), up 8.6 percent year-on-year. Macau has nearly met the government’s full-year target of MOP228 billion ($28.5 billion) with one month remaining.
The report emphasizes that operators with strong premium offerings are likely to outperform as new suites, entertainment products, and elevated service standards come online. UBS said these additions will support continued growth among high-spending customers despite broader macroeconomic uncertainties.
Mixed revisions across major concessionaires
UBS updated its forecasts for Macau’s major casino operators in line with their varying positions in the premium-led recovery. For Wynn Resorts, the bank maintained its Buy rating, noting the operator’s strong alignment with premium mass demand. UBS raised Wynn’s 2026 Macau revenue estimate by 3 percent to $3.99 billion but cut its EBITDA forecast by 4 percent to $1.17 billion due to higher salary inflation and additional costs related to the gourmet pavilion opening in 2025. Wynn’s mass-market share is expected to rise to 12.5 percent in 2026. The bank also increased its 2025 revenue estimate by 2 percent to $3.74 billion.
For Las Vegas Sands, UBS lifted its 2026 Macau revenue forecast by 4 percent to $8.07 billion and raised its EBITDA estimate by 1 percent to $2.63 billion, representing 12 percent year-on-year growth. The operator’s mass-market share is projected to expand to 26.6 percent in 2026 before easing slightly in 2027 following the opening of Galaxy Macau Phase 4. UBS maintained a Neutral rating.
In contrast, UBS lowered its 2026 estimates for MGM Resorts International, reducing the Macau revenue forecast by 1 percent to $4.49 billion and cutting the EBITDA estimate by 8 percent to $1.14 billion due to ongoing cost pressures. MGM’s mass-market share is expected to remain steady at 16.2 percent. UBS kept its Neutral rating despite the downward revisions.
